Jumbo seed goes mainstream: almost 40% of US AI first rounds are now $10M or more, boldstart data shows
What's the news? Jumbo seed rounds have gone mainstream. Almost 40% of priced first rounds raised by US AI and machine-learning startups in 2026 so far were $10 million or more, up from 11% in 2023, according to slides boldstart ventures showed at its annual LP meeting, shared by partner Ed Sim in his What's Hot newsletter on 31 October. Some 17% of those first rounds were above $20 million, up from 3%.
The barbell: Small rounds have not disappeared. Roughly a third of first rounds are still under $4 million, so the market is splitting into two ends with less in the middle. "Jumbo has gone mainstream. And valuations have gone jumbo, too," Sim writes.
The prices: The median first-round valuation has doubled since 2023, but at the top of the market it is more than five times higher. At the 95th percentile, post-money valuations rose from $57 million in 2023 to $300 million in 2026, almost ten times the median, compared with 3.8 times in 2023.
Who is writing the cheques? Among inception rounds of $10 million or more, nearly half now include a fund of $500 million or larger. Across US venture as a whole, boldstart's slides show 40% of capital going to Anthropic and OpenAI, the top ten deals taking almost 70% of dollars and rounds of $50 million or more accounting for 90%. "AI kingmaking has now arrived at inception in full force. The biggest funds aren't waiting for winners to emerge. They're trying to crown them from day one," Sim writes.
What could go wrong? Sim's warning is that "the problem comes when every company is priced as though it will deliver" a jaw-dropping outcome. He also notes that some funds are coming back to market just 12 to 18 months after their last raise, and that plenty of deals were being repriced as the AI trade sold off in late October. boldstart, an inception-stage investor, argues smaller, focused funds can still win by backing founders "before the company becomes an auction".
Read more: What's Hot in AI/Infra/VC #522 (Ed Sim, boldstart)
Image credit: boldstart ventures
