At 2.5×, who else is due a haircut?
Some private SaaS valuations still sit well above 2.5 times annual revenue. This scenario compares selected SaaS companies with older funding rounds, then allows for differences in growth.
At 2.5×, who else is due a haircut?
Illustrative scenario · recorded revenue may include estimates or annual recurring revenue
Growth changes the comparison. The curve below allows three years of growth, values that future revenue at 2.5× and discounts the result by 10% a year.
What changes when we allow for growth?
Illustrative 3-year scenario · 2.5× terminal revenue · 10% annual discount rate
Company data
Recorded valuation and revenue dates differ. Growth uses the latest available pair of completed, consecutive years. “Review” marks an extreme change awaiting comparability checks; raw observations remain in the CSV. Tap a company on a chart for its inputs.
| Company | Recorded value | Revenue / year | Multiple | At 2.5× | Change at 2.5× | Growth / period | Growth scenario multiple |
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What this means
A company above the curve would have a lower value under the growth scenario. Faster growth reduces the modeled cut; declining revenue increases it. Revenue quality, profitability, cash, debt and share preferences can materially change the result.
Sources, scope and assumptions
The starting values come from the 13 September 2026 Dealroom unicorns and thoroughbreds pipeline. The screen includes operating companies tagged SaaS with positive revenue dated 2023 or later and no recorded primary venture funding after 2022. A newer secondary transaction can still qualify. It is a selected sample, not an estimate of the whole private software market.
Geography follows the pipeline’s company country. USA means the United States. Europe excludes Russia and Israel; Israel and all other countries remain in Global. This differs from the original Europe + Israel chart. The first chart shows the 12 largest dollar reductions in the selected region; the growth scatter uses those same companies where growth is available, labeled by name. The table and CSV contain every included company in the region.
The first chart values each company at exactly 2.5 × recorded revenue. Values can rise for companies already recorded below 2.5×. Revenue may be estimates, forecasts or annual recurring revenue. The source series do not identify all changes in revenue definition. The multiple is recorded company value divided by revenue; it is not a cash-and-debt-adjusted enterprise-value multiple.
Growth is the percentage change between the latest available consecutive completed years, ending in 2024 or 2025. Repeated trailing observations are treated as possible forward fills and rolled back to their first occurrence. Missing, stale or non-consecutive pairs are left blank, not treated as zero growth. Changes above +100% or below −50% trigger a comparability review and are omitted from the scatter and growth scenario until verified. This conservative review range is a chosen data-quality rule, not a limit on plausible growth. Raw pairs and review notes remain in the data and CSV. Other plotted changes are still recorded revenue growth, not independently verified like-for-like growth.
The growth curve is 2.5 × ((1 + annual growth) / 1.10)³. It assumes growth persists for three years, a terminal multiple of 2.5× and a 10% annual discount rate. At 0%, 10% and 30% growth it gives approximately 1.9×, 2.5× and 4.1×. These are chosen sensitivity assumptions, not a fitted market pricing model or forecasts. Growth scenario values in the CSV are uncapped, so they can imply a value above the recorded mark.
Original Europe + Israel screen · Analysis data · Dated evidence and exclusions