{
  "asOf": "2026-10-26",
  "publicationDate": "2026-10-26",
  "source": "Dealroom analysis; filed actuals and separately labelled news reports",
  "methodology": "SpaceX is listed and is plotted on analyst consensus from multiples.vc, like the public basket: enterprise value over next-twelve-month revenue, FY2026–FY2028 revenue CAGR and FY2027 EBITDA margin. Its base revenue path below is the same consensus; the other scenarios feed only the revenue charts. For OpenAI and Anthropic, NTM is a calendar-weighted Dealroom estimate: 2/12 of FY2026 plus 10/12 of FY2027, assuming revenue is flat within each calendar year. It is not guidance or an observed monthly integral. Low and high use the same method. Growth is FY2026–FY2028 CAGR calculated before rounding. SpaceX’s base path is the analyst consensus for FY2026–FY2029 (multiples.vc, 10 November 2026), extended by Dealroom at 20% a year for 2030–2031. The OpenAI and Anthropic FY2026–2031 base paths are the existing Dealroom workbook scenarios, not forecasts derived from the new filings. SpaceX’s high path is Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s model of 31 October 2026 ($51.5B, $274B, $731B for 2026–2028), extended by Dealroom at 20% a year for 2029–2031; his model stops at 2028. The Musk case turns the annual run rate Elon Musk gave on the Q3 call ($500B–$1T by end-2027; midpoint used, rising evenly from the $35B Q1 2027 guidance) into $445B of 2027 revenue, takes the $1T he called “no longer impossible” for 2028, and extends it at 20% a year. Neither is formal company guidance. SpaceX’s low path was lowered on 1 November 2026 to sit below OpenAI’s low. OpenAI’s high path was raised on 1 November 2026: it starts from the $70B annualized revenue OpenAI expects by December 2026 and roughly doubles revenue in 2027 and 2028, which takes it past Anthropic’s base case from 2028. Anthropic uses gross GAAP revenue. OpenAI’s $1.25T reported round valuation, Anthropic’s $1.5T expected IPO value and the $965B/$852B last rounds are equity values, not EV. Only public companies enter the regression; listed SpaceX enters once when its region, sector and business-model filters and company toggle permit. Private overlays are visible context and never enter the regression. Outliers are determined by residuals from the initial public OLS fit and excluded from the refit only when the checkbox is selected.",
  "ntmWindow": "November 2026–October 2027",
  "private": [
    {
      "sku": "PRIV_SPACEX",
      "name": "SpaceX",
      "ticker": "SPCX",
      "country": "United States",
      "iso3": "USA",
      "region": "USA",
      "sector": "hardware",
      "model": "b2b",
      "color": "#EC4899",
      "cagrPct": 150.45,
      "marginPct": 62.7,
      "marginBasis": "FY2027 consensus margin",
      "ruleOfX": 213.14999999999998,
      "ev": 1878824.72,
      "ipoEv": 1878824.72,
      "ntm": 152145.66,
      "evRev": 12.34885516944749,
      "ipoEvRev": 12.34885516944749,
      "valuation": "$1.879T",
      "valuationDate": "10 Nov 2026",
      "valuationNote": "Enterprise value, multiples.vc",
      "ipoValuation": "$1.879T",
      "ipoNote": "Enterprise value and consensus estimates from multiples.vc, 10 Nov 2026",
      "ipoBasis": "enterprise value",
      "profitShort": "FY2027 consensus EBITDA margin; 9M 2026 filed adjusted EBITDA $13.474B on revenue $27.083B",
      "valuationKind": "enterprise value",
      "label": true,
      "private": false,
      "listed": true
    },
    {
      "sku": "PRIV_OPENAI",
      "name": "OpenAI",
      "ticker": "private",
      "country": "United States",
      "iso3": "USA",
      "region": "USA",
      "sector": "software",
      "model": "b2c",
      "color": "#8B5CF6",
      "cagrPct": 93.64916731037086,
      "cagrLowPct": 85.16401995451028,
      "cagrHighPct": 158.19888974716113,
      "marginPct": -45,
      "marginBasis": "Forward EBITDA assumption; not reported operating income",
      "ruleOfX": 48.649167310370856,
      "ev": 852000,
      "ipoEv": 1250000,
      "ntm": 77500,
      "ntmLow": 64166.66666666667,
      "ntmHigh": 132500,
      "rev2026": 40000,
      "rev2027": 85000,
      "rev2028": 150000,
      "evRev": 10.993548387096775,
      "ipoEvRev": 16.129032258064516,
      "valuation": "$852B",
      "valuationDate": "Mar 2026",
      "valuationNote": "Last priced round equity valuation; not enterprise value",
      "ipoValuation": "$1.25T",
      "ipoNote": "Pre-money value reported for the round in talks; not closed · CNBC 22 Oct",
      "ipoBasis": "reported round valuation",
      "profitShort": "−45% forward EBITDA assumption; September net annualized revenue $50B (CNBC, 8 Oct)",
      "valuationKind": "equity valuation",
      "label": true,
      "private": true,
      "listed": false
    },
    {
      "sku": "PRIV_ANTHROPIC",
      "name": "Anthropic",
      "ticker": "private",
      "country": "United States",
      "iso3": "USA",
      "region": "USA",
      "sector": "software",
      "model": "b2b",
      "color": "#D97757",
      "cagrPct": 121.63665540145625,
      "cagrLowPct": 105.68833780186057,
      "cagrHighPct": 134.1766633920198,
      "marginPct": 0,
      "marginBasis": "Forward EBITDA assumption; not reported operating income",
      "ruleOfX": 121.63665540145625,
      "ev": 965000,
      "ipoEv": 1500000,
      "ntm": 151166.66666666666,
      "ntmLow": 125333.33333333333,
      "ntmHigh": 177000,
      "rev2026": 57000,
      "rev2027": 170000,
      "rev2028": 280000,
      "evRev": 6.383682469680265,
      "ipoEvRev": 9.922822491730981,
      "valuation": "$965B",
      "valuationDate": "May 2026",
      "valuationNote": "Last priced round equity valuation; not enterprise value",
      "ipoValuation": "$1.5T",
      "ipoNote": "IPO valuation investors discussed; IPO not priced · Reuters 15 Oct",
      "ipoBasis": "expected IPO value",
      "profitShort": "0% forward EBITDA assumption; Q2 filed operating income $0.974B, not EBITDA",
      "valuationKind": "equity valuation",
      "label": true,
      "private": true,
      "listed": false
    }
  ]
}