{
  "asOf": "2026-10-26",
  "publicationDate": "2026-10-26",
  "status": "Publication authorized; evidence and scenarios as of 26 October 2026",
  "unit": "USD billions",
  "years": [2026,2027,2028,2029,2030,2031],
  "ntmWindow": "November 2026–October 2027",
  "methodology": "SpaceX is listed and is plotted on analyst consensus from multiples.vc, like the public basket: enterprise value over next-twelve-month revenue, FY2026–FY2028 revenue CAGR and FY2027 EBITDA margin. Its base revenue path below is the same consensus; the other scenarios feed only the revenue charts. For OpenAI and Anthropic, NTM is a calendar-weighted Dealroom estimate: 2/12 of FY2026 plus 10/12 of FY2027, assuming revenue is flat within each calendar year. It is not guidance or an observed monthly integral. Low and high use the same method. Growth is FY2026–FY2028 CAGR calculated before rounding. SpaceX’s base path is the analyst consensus for FY2026–FY2029 (multiples.vc, 10 November 2026), extended by Dealroom at 20% a year for 2030–2031. The OpenAI and Anthropic FY2026–2031 base paths are the existing Dealroom workbook scenarios, not forecasts derived from the new filings. SpaceX’s high path is Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s model of 31 October 2026 ($51.5B, $274B, $731B for 2026–2028), extended by Dealroom at 20% a year for 2029–2031; his model stops at 2028. The Musk case turns the annual run rate Elon Musk gave on the Q3 call ($500B–$1T by end-2027; midpoint used, rising evenly from the $35B Q1 2027 guidance) into $445B of 2027 revenue, takes the $1T he called “no longer impossible” for 2028, and extends it at 20% a year. Neither is formal company guidance. SpaceX’s low path was lowered on 1 November 2026 to sit below OpenAI’s low. OpenAI’s high path was raised on 1 November 2026: it starts from the $70B annualized revenue OpenAI expects by December 2026 and roughly doubles revenue in 2027 and 2028, which takes it past Anthropic’s base case from 2028. Anthropic uses gross GAAP revenue. OpenAI’s $1.25T reported round valuation, Anthropic’s $1.5T expected IPO value and the $965B/$852B last rounds are equity values, not EV. Only public companies enter the regression; listed SpaceX enters once when its region, sector and business-model filters and company toggle permit. Private overlays are visible context and never enter the regression. Outliers are determined by residuals from the initial public OLS fit and excluded from the refit only when the checkbox is selected.",
  "price": {"close":147.49,"date":"2026-10-23","classA":8246541218,"classB":5334522491,"sharesDate":"2026-10-15","sharesBasis":"Outstanding, not fully diluted","source":"spacex-10q","priceSource":"spacex-price"},
  "balanceSheet": {"date":"2026-09-30","cash":51.294,"marketableSecurities":38.561,"currentDebtAndLeases":2.698,"longTermDebtAndLeases":36.146,"netCash":51.011},
  "actuals": {
    "Anthropic":{"annualRevenue":{"2023":0.041,"2024":0.386,"2025":4.585},"quarterRevenue":{"2025Q1":0.376,"2025Q2":0.787,"2025Q3":1.382,"2025Q4":2.040,"2026Q1":4.731,"2026Q2":11.555},"h1Revenue":16.286,"q2OperatingIncome":0.974,"h1OperatingIncome":-0.693,"h1AdjustedOperatingIncome":1.618,"q2AdjustedOperatingIncome":2.235,"h1NetIncome":-80.748,"h1OperatingCashFlow":3.929,"h1CashAndShortTermInvestments":131.651,"q3RevenueFiled":null,"currentRunRateFiled":null,"source":"anthropic-s1","annualClassification":"audited filed","interimClassification":"unaudited filed"},
    "SpaceX":{"quarterRevenue":{"2025Q3":5.576,"2026Q1":4.694,"2026Q2":7.814,"2026Q3":14.575},"q3Revenue":14.575,"q3PriorRevenue":5.576,"ytdRevenue":27.083,"ytdPriorRevenue":13.714,"q3AdjustedEbitda":8.809,"ytdAdjustedEbitda":13.474,"q3OperatingIncome":2.791,"q3NetIncome":4.404,"q3Capex":19.593,"ytdCapex":48.069,"ytdOperatingCashFlow":13.097,"q3Segments":{"Connectivity":5.248,"Super Intelligence":7.560,"Space":1.767},"cursorClosed":"2026-08-14","customerBQ3RevenueSharePct":34.5,"source":"spacex-q3","classification":"filed unaudited"}
  },
  "spacexAnthropicContract": {"source":"anthropic-s1","classification":"Filed spending arrangements, conditional on capacity delivery and subject to cancellation; not guaranteed backlog","maximumSpendingThrough2029":120.5,"fullCapacityMonthlySpending":3.1,"expectedFullCapacity":"2026-12","initialNoncancelableEnds":["2027-01","2027-03"],"subsequentEitherPartyNoticeDays":90,"scenarioTreatment":"No additive revenue uplift: consensus FY2027 total 168.8 includes residual Super Intelligence 130.8 after Connectivity 32 and Space 6; no customer-level bridge establishes incremental revenue."},
  "reported": {
    "Anthropic":{"q3Revenue":16.8,"reportDate":"2026-10-14","source":"anthropic-q3-news","classification":"FT report of investor communication; not in first public S-1","julyRunRate":65,"julyRunRateSource":"openai-september","octoberRunRate":81,"octoberRunRateSource":"anthropic-october"},
    "OpenAI":{"septemberNetRunRate":50,"septemberIncludingPartnerRunRate":68,"decemberTarget":70,"targetClassification":"Bloomberg reported expectation, not booked revenue or company filing","source":"openai-september","targetSource":"openai-target","fy2025Revenue":13.1,"fy2025Classification":"secondary reported, retained workbook anchor"}
  },
  "companies":[
    {"name":"SpaceX","color":"#EC4899","sector":"hardware","model":"b2b","lastRoundEquity":1250,"lastRoundDate":"Feb 2026 (historical only)","base": [49.3, 168.8, 309.3, 485.9, 583.1, 699.7],"low":[40,70,95,115,140,165],"high":[51.5,274,731,880,1050,1260],"musk":[50,445,1000,1200,1440,1730],"consensus":{"source":"multiples.vc","date":"2026-11-10","ev":1878824.72,"revNtm":152145.66,"cagrPct":150.45,"revenue":[49.3,168.8,309.3,485.9],"marginPct":62.7,"note":"Analyst consensus, USD millions: enterprise value, next-twelve-month revenue, FY2026–FY2028 revenue CAGR, FY2027 EBITDA margin. The page refreshes these from overlays in rule-of-x-data.json."}},
    {"name":"OpenAI","color":"#8B5CF6","sector":"software","model":"b2c","equityScenario":1250,"valueBasis":"reported round valuation","valueNote":"Pre-money value reported for the round in talks; not closed · CNBC 22 Oct","valueSource":"openai-round","lastRoundEquity":852,"lastRoundDate":"Mar 2026","marginAssumption":-45,"base":[40,85,150,165,220,280],"low":[35,70,120,130,165,205],"high":[45,150,300,440,590,740]},
    {"name":"Anthropic","color":"#D97757","sector":"software","model":"b2b","equityScenario":1500,"valueBasis":"expected IPO value","valueNote":"IPO valuation investors discussed; IPO not priced · Reuters 15 Oct","valueSource":"anthropic-ipo-value","lastRoundEquity":965,"lastRoundDate":"May 2026","marginAssumption":0,"base":[57,170,280,400,525,650],"low":[52,140,220,300,390,480],"high":[62,200,340,500,680,850]}
  ],
  "segmentAllocation":{
    "basis":"Explicit Dealroom allocation assumptions, not segment guidance. Super Intelligence is the residual to each unchanged company scenario; includes infrastructure, applications, Cursor and X advertising. Nine-month actuals shown separately, not annualized.",
    "low":{"connectivity":[18.4,28,39,49,60,71],"space":[3.6,5,5,5.5,6,6.5]},
    "base":{"connectivity":[18.4,32,46,60,75,90],"space":[3.8,6,8,10,12,14]},
    "high":{"connectivity":[19,30,45,60,80,95],"space":[4,6,7,8,10,12]}
  },
  "sotp":[
    {"key":"Connectivity","color":"#EC4899","revenue":138,"multiple":12,"basis":"Revenue set at Verizon’s 2025 revenue, as a benchmark for a mature Starlink."},
    {"key":"AI compute","color":"#8B5CF6","revenue":200,"multiple":10,"basis":"10 GW of computing capacity by end-2027, the SemiAnalysis estimate, at $20B of revenue per GW a year."},
    {"key":"Grok / applications","color":"#A78BFA","revenue":10,"multiple":16,"basis":"An illustrative revenue input for Grok and other applications."},
    {"key":"Other space and launch","color":"#5E8FD8","revenue":4,"multiple":25,"basis":"Launch and Dragon revenue."}
  ],
  "sources":[
    {"id":"anthropic-s1","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm","title":"Anthropic S-1, 26 October 2026","classification":"Primary filing; annual audited, interim unaudited; p158 quarterly results, F21–F22 accounting, pp171–172 SpaceXAI commitment"},
    {"id":"anthropic-announcement","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/news/s1-sec","title":"Anthropic S-1 announcement, 26 October 2026","classification":"Primary company announcement; IPO price and share count not set"},
    {"id":"spacex-q3","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026066482/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm","title":"SpaceX Q3 earnings release, 20 October 2026","classification":"Primary SEC exhibit; unaudited financial results"},
    {"id":"spacex-10q","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001181412/000162828026066880/spcx-20260930.htm","title":"SpaceX Q3 Form 10-Q; cover shares at 15 October 2026","classification":"Primary filing; September balance sheet and exact October outstanding shares"},
    {"id":"spacex-apollo","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000110465926118614/tm2628247d1_8k.htm","title":"SpaceX Apollo financing commitment, 26 October 2026","classification":"Primary 8-K; approximately $40B principal lease commitment, not funded September debt"},
    {"id":"spacex-price","url":"https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/history/","title":"SpaceX closing price, 23 October 2026","classification":"Secondary market-price table, browser-verified by researcher"},
    {"id":"openai-september","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html","title":"CNBC, 8 October 2026: September OpenAI net run-rate and July Anthropic investor figure","classification":"Secondary original reporting, full body verified by researcher"},
    {"id":"openai-target","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-09/openai-expects-70-billion-in-annualized-revenue-by-end-of-2026","title":"Bloomberg, 9 October 2026: OpenAI December expectation","classification":"Secondary reporting; captured search/excerpts, not a company forecast"},
    {"id":"anthropic-q3-news","url":"https://www.ft.com/content/11632d03-358c-454b-af95-d06d4072932b","title":"Financial Times, 14 October 2026: Anthropic Q3 investor report","classification":"Secondary reporting; captured excerpts and Reuters syndication, not S-1 revenue"},
    {"id":"openai-round","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/22/openai-funding-round-uae-investors.html","title":"CNBC, 22 October 2026: OpenAI nears up to $30B round at $1.25T valuation","classification":"Secondary reporting; $1.25T pre-money, round not closed"},
    {"id":"maguire-model","url":"https://app.dealroom.co/news/note/sequoia-s-shaun-maguire-models-spacex-revenue-at-274b-in-2027-and-731b-in-2028-more-than-double-wall-street","title":"Dealroom News, 31 October 2026: Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire models SpaceX revenue at $274B in 2027 and $731B in 2028","classification":"Investor model; 2026–2028 only, not company guidance"},
    {"id":"musk-q3-call","url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/22/elon-musk-spacex-revenue-could-hit-somewhere-between-500-billion-and-a-trillion-by-2027/","title":"24/7 Wall St., 22 October 2026: Musk says SpaceX revenue could hit $500B–$1T by 2027","classification":"Secondary reporting of the Q3 call; run-rate target, not formal guidance"},
    {"id":"grokbot-users","url":"https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/31/grokbot-closes-in-on-muse-as-musk-targets-meta","title":"Seoul Economic Daily, 31 October 2026: Grokbot’s user base surges ninefold in 50 days","classification":"Secondary reporting of Similarweb daily-user estimates shared by Musk"},
    {"id":"anthropic-ipo-value","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/investors-temper-anthropic-ipo-valuation-expectations-over-revenue-growth-2026-10-15/","title":"Reuters, 15 October 2026: investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations","classification":"Secondary reporting; $1.5T discussed by investors, IPO not priced"},
    {"id":"workbook","url":"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10KWzyHxkfGkWqrLUvfMIivTGkU5Zy0hiz0IOAFItQ70/edit","title":"Dealroom Rule of X workbook, read-only snapshot 26 October 2026","classification":"Internal scenario source, unchanged FY2026–2031 paths and illustrative SOTP; not guidance"},
    {"id":"anthropic-october","url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-ipo-revenue-growth-cramer.html","title":"CNBC, 10 November 2026: Anthropic run-rate of $81B at the end of October","classification":"News report of a company-reported run-rate; not booked revenue"}
  ]
}