Fisher opens $5.2B ExxonMobil stake, its biggest Q3 bet
What's the deal? Fisher Investments disclosed a new $5.2 billion position in ExxonMobil, making it the firm's largest new or added holding in the third quarter. Ken Fisher's firm held 31.93 million shares as of September 30, up from zero on June 30, according to its 13F filed November 6.
By the numbers: The stake accounts for 1.5% of the $348.26 billion of US stocks in Fisher's 13F, which spans 1,054 positions. That ranks ExxonMobil as Fisher's 16th-largest holding — a big slot for a stock absent three months earlier. The firm manages $386.67 billion in total.
What else moved? Fisher added 38% more shares of GE Vernova and 22% more shares of Cisco during the quarter. Both have since lagged: GE Vernova is down 14% and Cisco down 5% since September 30, while ExxonMobil is up 4%.
Why now? The bet lands during an exceptional stretch for oil majors. ExxonMobil's adjusted earnings more than doubled year over year to $17.5 billion, driven largely by record refining profits amid war-related supply disruptions.
What's the catch? Those are war-year earnings. Analysts expect normalized earnings per share of $13.70 for 2026 — nearly double the $6.99 of 2025 — then a fade to $10.40 by 2028 as the war's lift to prices and refining margins eases. Brent briefly dipped below $90 after President Trump said the war could end soon.
What's the endgame? ExxonMobil trades at 12 times forward earnings, just under its five-year average of 13 times, but priced on 2028 estimates the multiple sits well above average. Management's 2030 plan calls for $25 billion more in earnings than 2024 at constant prices, from added Permian and Guyana output and lower costs.
The signal: A $5.2 billion opening position is notable for its size, not as proof of a fresh endorsement. The 13F doesn't reveal when or at what price Fisher bought, and the windfall underpinning Exxon's recent earnings may not last — leaving the stock fully priced until December's plan update.
Read more: finance.yahoo.com
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