Nebius jumps 571% but spending plans spook investors
What's the deal? Nebius shares fell as much as 23% after the neocloud company reported third-quarter revenue up 571% year-on-year to about $981 million, but disappointed investors with its outlook. It cut full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $3.0–$3.2 billion and narrowed its net loss to $35.7 million.
Why now? Nebius pushed some revenue it had expected to book in December into 2027, blaming delays in third-party data-center capacity. The stock recovered some losses to trade down 17% by midday in New York.
What's the endgame? Nebius laid out roughly $27 billion in planned capital spending for 2026 and $40–$45 billion for 2027 — far above analysts' expectations. It plans to fund the buildout with customer pre-payments and loans backed by customer contracts, effectively using the future value of its data centers to finance their construction.
What could go wrong? That financing strategy depends on capacity arriving on time. One of its largest customers, Microsoft, is paying for capacity at a Vineland, New Jersey site now months behind schedule; only just over half of that capacity is now due by year-end, with the rest slated for the second quarter of 2027.
The Microsoft contract is worth up to $19.4 billion and includes financial penalties for late delivery, plus termination rights if deadlines are missed and no alternative capacity is offered. BloombergDealroom has a profile for this one. Try Dealroom → reported Microsoft is tightening oversight of third-party projects and debating whether to sign new agreements.
"Building at this scale is hard, and delays are part of our industry right now," chief executive officer Arkady Volozh said on the earnings call. "We are not immune."
The signal: The selloff shows investors are rewarding neoclouds that prove they can bring capacity online on schedule while scrutinizing the sector's enormous spending and financing needs. Days earlier, rival CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue guidance, citing a $132.5 billion backlog — a contrast that left Nebius's execution risk in sharp relief.
Read more: Bloomberg, TechCrunch
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